revised
 11/1/09

 Lecture Sessions
Sec. 01 & 20, Prof Papayanopoulos		 Fall 2009

Week of

Topic

Comments/Readings

1

Sep 2

Introduction & Overview of the course: What is/are Statistics? Data, variables, Excel basics

Ch 1; SUM/AVERAGE, MIN/MAX

2

9

Expectation & Simulation, Probability Basics; Expected values, simulation methods, the Excel approach

Ch. 17-20, Notes, RAND, INT

3

16

Confidence, inference, sampling: confidence intervals I, margin of error; parameter, statistic, proportion, variability, statistical bias

Ch 2-3; IF, COUNTIF

4

23

 Sampling in the real world: random sampling & nonsampling errors (nonresponse, processing, response errors) stratified sampling, prob. samples

Ch 3-4; Excel graphs, FREQUENCY, Parametric Simulation

5

30

Introduction to Experiments: Response & Explanatory Variables, Confounding, Lurking Variables, Placebo Effect, Principles of Experimental Design, Statistical Significance, Randomized Comparative Experiments; Experiments in the Real World: Double-blind Experiments, Completely Randomized Experimental Design, Matched-pair Design, Block Design (Data Ethics)

 Ch 5-7, Control Tools

 

6

Oct 7

 Measuring, accuracy, pitfalls, validity: Measurement, Units, Rates, Counts, Validity, Accuracy, Predictive Validity, More on Bias, Reliability, Consistency; Good & Bad measurements; Do the numbers make sense? Consistent, plausible, the whole truth?

Ch. 8-9
 MIDTERM I

7

14

Graphs: Pie Charts, Bar & Line Graphs, Histograms and parametric simulation.

Ch. 10;

8

21

 Distributions: Outliers, Stem plots, Symmetric & Skewed Distributions, Center & Spread, Measures of center, measures of dispersion, the 5-number Summary: Median & Quartiles, Mean & Standard Deviation, Box plots. Ch. 11
STDEV, STDEVP

9

28

 Probability density curves: Properties of Discrete & Continuous Distributions, Center & Spread, Usefulness, applications, modeling, Ch. 12

10

Nov 4

The normal distribution:  The 68-95-99.7 Rule; z-values & Percentiles, Excel functions & simulations   

Ch. 13, NORMSDIST, NORMDIST
 (Ch 5-12, Excel)

11

11

Linear Models: linear/nonlinear multivariate relationships   MIDTERM II (Nov 11)

 NORMSINV, Ch. 14

12

18

Association, correlation: strength & direction of bivariate relationships, coefficient of correlation;

Ch. 15

Nov 25-29  Thanksgiving Recess

  

13

Dec 2

Causation; regression & prediction: Least Squares fit, residual errors,  R-square, validity

 Excel: Regression

14

9

 Time Series, Index Numbers, Market Baskets, and the Consumer Price Index; Review of course & overview of the broader field, open discussion Ch. 16, Ch. 21?
 Last BRM class: Friday, December 11... Reading Days:  Dec 14-15 (Mo-Tu) Examination Period
Final Exam
 		 TBA; Bring soft-lead pencils suitable for Scantron responses & your RU picture Id. Rules on calculators will be strictly enforced; please come prepared! Pre-assigned seating.

Weighted/Cumulative, Ch. 1-20 (parts that were  covered) & notes
Winter Recess: Th., Dec 24, 2009 - Mo. Jan 18, 2010. --  Spring term begins Tu., Jan 19

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